Obsessed with Rankings?
Got an e-mail about my frequent mentions of rankings. Have also been reminded that team X was ranked Y in defense when team Z played them.
First, my “obsession”. It’s not perfect, but by this point in the season rankings should give you a good idea whether your team or their opponent have a great, good, mediocre or poor rush defense or pass offense. I don’t think much of a 10 place difference in the rankings…that could be impacted by one or two anomalous games. But if your team has the 86th ranked pass offense and they’re playing the 3rd ranked pass defense, 9 games out of 10 they’ll probably struggle throwing the ball effectively.
By this point of the season, there’s been enough inter- and intra-conference play to make a difference. And I believe you ignore this stuff to your peril. I discussed the Big 12 with dozens of people last year. Many in the media kept talking about their “high flying offenses” and “amazing quarterbacks” – there were four or five quarterbacks that put up twice in a decade offensive numbers. Statistics tells you that its far more likely that the pass defenses were bad rather than all of these fantastic quarterbacks coming at the same time in the same conference. Many in the media preferred the good story of all the great quarterbacks. Many of those quarterbacks struggled against strong defenses in the bowl games.
As for the team’s ranking when your team played them. Means nothing. Say you played someone in September and their offense was ranked fifth in the nation then, but it’s 70th now. You played a bottom half offense. They just hadn’t played any defenses with a pulse yet. The rankings today are what they should be. There are some minor caveats. If your team had played Oklahoma before it last Bradford and Gresham, you would have some argument. But losses that extreme have been relatively rare this season.
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