Comment posted Tebow vs. McCoy by Anyone but Tebow.
Why would you include rushing TDs when you're talking about facing top passing defenses?
Interesting stat manipulation, nonetheless.
powered by SEO Super Comments
Interesting stat manipulation, nonetheless.
McCoy rushes too, and if you would notice, McCoy only has two TDs, thats 2 rushing/passing. If Tebow has 15 rushing AND passing, then we see who the better player is. Also, this guy used completely creditable info, so what is wrong with his statements about Tebow being better. He backed up his statement with a fact, you just are trying to make excuses.
No, he used skewed stats. As I have proven.
The pass D stats is very skewed since no one in the SEC passes the ball.
SEC PASSING OFFENSES
#42 South Carolina
#53 Ole Miss
#113 Mississippi St
You mean the blog with Tim Tebow in their logo is promoting Tim Tebow as the best QB ever?
Who's got the better overall W-L record? Did Tim Tebow break an SEC QB's record for most wins two weeks ago?
Didn't McCoy break the NCAA record for most wins two weeks ago?
Who has more championships? Thats all that matters, am i right? If winning is your argument, then tebow wins because he has 2 rings, while mccoy has ZERO
Well, if you're going include Tebow's 2006 ring as a backup, then you have to include McCoys 2005 ring as a redshirt.
We're talking about STARTING QUARTERBACKS GENTLEMEN.. Not backup nobodies
Uh, the 40 best pass defenses? That's a load of statistical crap. Tebow faces statistically better pass defenses only because of the QB/offensively challenged SEC. I call BS on the whole "analysis."
Again – look at opponents. Let's pull in FCS and high school victories if opponents don't matter.
So your saying that David Greene of UGA should have won the year he broke the record right?
Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. David Greene should've won the Heisman.
The problem is that with McCoy you are only looking at 2 games. OU shut him down. Early in the year and the new receivers were still being broken in. I think we'll get a better look this weekend. Texas O is playing much better now then in Oct. But Colt needs to show it against a top notch D.
I looked at the (only) two Top 70 pass defenses you played. Not sure what else I can do. Would you consider his stats against the 73rd ranked pass defense a game against top defensive competition?
Of course more defenses in the SEC are going to be in the top 40, none of those teams play offense.
3 of the top 11 offenses are in the big 12 (Tech, Aggy & Texas) and Houston (#1) played 2 big 12 teams. Florida & Arkansas are the only SEC teams in the top 20. Where as Kentucky, Vanderbilt and LSU are all ranked 91st or worst. There's only 1 Big 12 team in the bottom 30 (Nebraska.)
And I'm sure Tim had a tough time against FIU's 119th ranked Defense, or Troy's 101st ranked defense. And lets not forget that D2 school Florida played.
All I'm saying is that there's holes in both of these guys' resume. I find it a little funny that a website devoted to Tim Tebow's Heisman campaign publishes some round-about analysis that says Tebow is the best. Should we expect anything less?
Total passing yards McCoy beats Tebow hands down.
“Why Top 40 pass defenses?”. The inference was that I am cherrypicking good numbers for Tebow. I chose 40 because that is the exact ranking of the second best pass defense Texas played.
I'm assuming the Top 40 defenses you chose were based on yardage, but you quickly dismissed McCoy's yardage prowess and failed to mention the numbers themselves.
If you're going to argue for Tebow being more efficient, which I actually think he is since he has more downfield throws, fewer mistakes, and an improved TD rate, then find the top defenses based on those same metrics. Two games for McCoy is too small of a sample size as well. I was only able to find 6 teams (Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, and Georgia) in the Top 40 in passing yardage that Florida played.
I don't think you intentionally cherry-picked stats, but it would just be a more consistent argument if you looked at pass efficiency defense when arguing Tebow is more efficient.
I looked them up, and McCoy has faced Oklahoma (10th), Oklahoma State (28th), Texas Tech (34th), Louisiana-Monroe (45th), and Baylor (51st) as his Top 5 pass efficiency defenses. Tebow has faced Tennessee (8th), LSU (19th), Kentucky (24th), South Carolina (29th), and Vanderbilt (35th) as his Top 5 (coming in 6th was Mississippi State at 76th – quite a ways back). Tebow faced 5 teams (Georgia, Troy, Arkansas, FIU, and Florida State) in the bottom 21 (90th and lower) while McCoy faced 1 (UTEP). Tebows opponents were either in the top third or bottom third, with the exception of Mississippi State at 70th. McCoy faced 5 in the middle third.
When looking at yardage, Tebow's average opponent ranking was 54th while McCoy's was 81st. Switch to efficiency, and McCoy's average was 60th while Tebow's was 62nd. That's pretty close. With the opponents being virtually equal in average rating, you can look at the season totals that you listed first and see that you are right: Tebow was the more efficient quarterback of the two this season.
Looking at opponents in the top third (40th or better), Tebow's average line was 11.8 of 18 for 151.8 yards with 0.8 TDs and 0.4 INTs in 5 games. McCoy was 20.3 of 31.3 for 167.7 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in 3 games. While there completion percentage was almost identical (Tebow 65.6 vs McCoy 64.9), Tebow averaged over 3 yards more per attempt than McCoy (8.43 vs 5.35). The poor showing against Oklahoma (21 of 39 for 127 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT) really drug McCoy down in what was his most visible game.
Tebow was hands-down more efficient; he was better against all teams and better against the best teams. Unfortunately, most voters won't dig into the stats like we have here. They'll see Tebow that has won the Heisman already, a Florida team that wasn't as dominant as they thought, and Tebow only having 17 TD passes and 30 total TDs in a year when he appeared to be going slower around the concussion.
McCoy has over 3300 yards, 27 TDs, was the odd man out of the Heisman and BCS last season, and was last seen running for 175 yards. The arguments against Tebow and for McCoy aren't fair and involve things that shouldn't be involved, but they'll be in voters minds regardless.
Deserving or not, that's why I don't think the more efficient Tebow will beat McCoy in the Heisman this season.
But when you play against top offensive competition every single week, your defensive numbers are bound to be higher than teams that regularly play against crappy offenses. Aggy is the #6 ranked offense and they managed to put up almost 40 points against Texas. Aggy put up 35 or more 7 times this season, and missed it by 1 point another time. South Carolina didn't score 39 points all season, Georgia did it twice, and couldn't even break 39 against Tennessee Tech, LSU did it once, vs Tulane.
Pretty simple really, when you play great offenses even good defenses can look bad. Shitty offenses can make a bad defense look good.
That's exactly the reason that I suggest you discount bad teams and only look at performances against strong defenses. In another article, I say this past week's performances shouldn't be a big part of the decision process. A&M and FSU's defenses are terrible. A&M is 107th in the country. Are you trying to tell me this is the result of every offense in the Big 12 being fantastic?
But this is the same argument that was made last year as Oklahoma and Texas Tech's "amazing" offenses were basically shut down by SEC defenses. Did you watch the Kansas-Mizzou game Saturday? Those defenses tackled like peewee football teams.
Really? Oklahoma and Tech's offenses were SHUT DOWN by SEC defenses? I'd say neither Oklahoma nor Florida did much offensively in that title game. And Ole Miss still gave up 469 yards to Tech.
And what exactly constitutes a "bad team?" Houston is 10-2 but has the 110th ranked defense. I'm saying to compare SEC defenses to Big 12 defenses is ridiculous because the Big 12 defenses face far far better offenses. You can't really tell me the bottom 2/3rds of the SEC is offensively comparably to the bottom 2/3rds of the Big 12. Aggy is 6-6 and has a top 10 offense.
"Why would you include rushing TDs when you're talking about facing top passing defenses? "
Because Tebow is Florida's primary runner every game regardless of opposition, while McCoy has only been utilized in the run game in 2 or 3 games this year, and thus the stat makes Tebow look better disproportionately.
Mack Brown would rather not take the risk and mostly Texas been winning big and hasn't needed him to run except on scrambles. Florida hasn't needed Tebow to run a lot either, but basically being their short-yardage fullback, he's always going to get called carries, plus Florida uses the option more than Texas.
I knew McCoy was way up there in the percentage of passes that he throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, but I've see Shipley and the freshman track star break enough to think that his average per attempt would be closer to Tebow's than it was.
As an LSU fan, I've seen Tebow up close for the past four years, and he always passes better than I expect him to.
You're dead on with your comment about cyclical powers. The SEC has the defenses to stop almost anyone at the moment. The offenses are typically no better than middle of the pack, but the defensive reputations are completely built on those middling offenses.
I think your numbers are a little skewed. Tebow plays in a conference where the majority of offenses are traditional, run to establish the pass type offenses. Therefore, sec defenses are going to tend to score higher versus the pass than those in the big12. Texas, on the other hand plays where the majority of offenses are uptempo, pass first offenses. Defending those types of offenses takes a while different game plan. Maybe to seem more objective and less Tebow-homer, you should consider looking at stats that take this into account. Maybe average play per pass attempt allowed. Also would be a nice comparison to see percentage of plays defended broken down into pass/run, just so your readers get a more objective view of the point you are trying to make. I guess what I mean is, if big12 defenses see 40% more pass plays per game, then the odds are they are going to give up more passing yards, therefore not fall into your “top 40″ cutoff. I understand why you used that as your criteria, but it obviously skews the numbersin your (tebow’s) favor. What do you honestly think sec defensive numbers would look like if they saw 35-50 pass attempts per game as is what an average offense in the big 12 runs… I hope I have made a little sense of what I am trying to say.
I'll try to keep it shorter and to the point. I don't have a problem with your cutoff for defenses. You're comparing the pass efficiency of the QB's, but when you distinguish good defenses, you look at yardage instead of pass efficiency. If you were comparing the yardage that they threw for, then it would be more appropriate to look at defenses ranked by passing yardage.
I agree that no one ever lists pass efficiency defense and that they normally are talking about yardage, but I think that if you feel that QB pass efficiency is a significant stat, then you'd have to think that defensive pass efficiency is also significant, though much less sexy.
But I appreciate your input and think you should have your own blog – for sure.
Sounds more like a big "Tebow for Heisman" party as opposed to objective analysis. So, instead of comparing the type of stats that have been used for QB candidates in the past, change them to benefit one of the <cough, cough… TEBOW> candidates over the other.
Hmm, can you hear all the eyes rolling?
So it's a career award?
These stats are the direct line items from the passing efficiency statistics on the NCAA's official stats page…all of them.
Let's look at the stats that matter. Yards per attempt and Interception % are hardly used to compare Qb's. All anyone has to do is look for the stats that YOU LEFT OUT! To know that Mccoy must be ahead in all of those.
Just taking the statline RIGHT OFF OF ESPN.. No manipulating
2009 310 432 3328 71.8 7.70 88 27 9 21 152.93
2009 162 244 2166 66.4 8.88 77 17 4 25 160.67
Colt has more yards. More yards per game. More TD's. More Int's. (ouch) Less sacks given up. Slightly less Passer rating. Best completion % OF ALL TIME if he keeps it up for his career.
The biggest stat though is yards per game. For a QB this is super important. Tim is averaging 181 ypg. While Colt is averaging 277 ypg.
Thank you for making my point. He plays poorly against good defenses and racks up major yardage against the bottom of the barrel pass defenses. (10 of the teams you played this year were in the BOTTOM 50 for pass defense).
BTW – Yards/Attempt and Interception Percentage are directly from the NCAA official stats page. They are official stats kept by the NCAA.
9 of those 10 play against 4 of the top 10 offenses.
Texas has/had the best defense in the nation and still gave up a lot of yards to the Aggys with the #6 offense. If the SEC teams played great offenses they wouldn't have top 40 defenses either.
I was being facetious. And stop giving yourself thumbs up. Co-signing yourself isn't that cool.
It will all be settled.
As I was telling my Florida-alum friend this weekend. It feels a lot like 2004 for Texas fans. NC game in the Rose Bowl, you just sub in "Tim Tebow" for "Reggie Bush" and "Florida" for "USC."
We all know how that game ended.
I was at that game and i am going to this one. Be prepared jesus, i mean Tim Tebow. ESPN has come just short of comparing you to the 20 greatest QBs of all time and saying that you would crush all of them. Colt will have his say and the true nice guy will finish first.
LOL. I have no idea why that does that – if it's because I'm the mod or possibly some other reason. I am not giving myself a thumbs up.
Of course he has more yards. He's thrown 188 more passes than Tebow this year. Do you know how many games it would take for Tebow to throw another 188 passes? Considering he's thrown an average of ~20 passes per game, it would take him another 9 games to throw as many as McCoy. Yet, surprise, surprise, his yards per pass average is over a yard better than McCoy's AND his efficiency is better playing against VASTLY stiffer defenses.
^^ exactly…if he throws 188 more times and keeps his average yard per pass he prolly passes him in yardage..just sayin'
I think we learned last bowl season that Big 12 offenses are only great because they play against horrid defenses. UT got shut down by friggin' Ohio State, Texas Tech scored some points, but was held below their average against a mediocre Ole Miss defense, and Oklahoma's "best offense of all time" was schooled by the Gators. I think it's a little suspicious that every year the best statistical quarterbacks somehow come out of the Big 12. It's because nobody in the Big 12 has a shred of a clue of how to play defense.
And SEC defenses are only really good because they play horrid offenses. It is a circular argument. The SEC is not the worldbeater that SEC! SEC! SEC! fans try to make themselves out to be.
It's interesting that you think it was round about. I've gotten e-mails and tweets from some of the bigger sports writers in the country saying it opened their eyes. I wish both guys the best. I think McCoy is a fantastic quarterback and if Florida is lucky enough to be playing him in the NC game, I will be expecting a dogfight.
However, your argument is what we hear every year. And once the bowls are done, everyone says "geez, the SEC does play some serious ball". It's all cyclical and it won't be like this forever, but it is what it is right now. The Big 12 doesn't have 10 world beater offenses that make the conferences defenses look bad. The defenses do that on their own.
As for last year's National Championship game, Oklahoma came in averaging 562 yards and 54 points of offense a game and the question nationally was could the Gators defense even slow them down. Florida held them to 14 points. I'd call that "shut down".
I had some trouble following this. I picked 40 because that was what I could do to get more than one game stats. In my previous posts, I used Top 25, but that left one weakish game to use. By this time of the year, these rankings are pretty good. They are slightly skewed by certain conference stats, but there have usually been several OOC games to try to provide some relativity. Pass efficiency defense ranks are fun to look at, but mean little in the scheme of things. How often do you see that listed as a defensive stat when people are discussing games? If you've found a problem with my numbers, let me know. Otherwise, I stand by the content.
Have you factored in that, y'know, when you watch them play, many of Tebow's passing yards come from gimme shovel passes. McCoy actually has to wind up and throw, even if his offense does rely very much so on "easy" screen passes. Tebow also gets sacked an absurd amount considering how few "true" drop backs he takes.
FWIW, I don't think will make "strong" Heisman winners, and Gerhart is a beast, but probably doesn't get enough hype (there is a certain irony in discounting him for an 8-4 record…check Tebow's record the season he won it). McCoy, while still superlative, was more accurate last year, threw more tds and yards and had a bit of an early season slump, and UF has had trouble scoring at times. McCoy has stepped up his rushing yardage slightly, and does have 7 more rushing TDs than last year.
btw, your explanation as to why you are not cherry picking numbers is clearly indicative that you are in fact cherry picking numbers. Please re-evaluate. That is all.
ummm, pretty sure we are talking about the SEC. and yes, what a great accomplishment. He has started four years, and he was only needed to win half of those games. The rest were pushovers. Woo hoo.
McCoy's game against A&M was truly impressive, unless you consider the no-name QB for the Aggies nearly matched his stats and kept them in the game 'till the end. Those defenses are a joke.
a) Tebow's team had an 9-3 record when he won the Heisman and b) two of those losses were to the top two teams in the FINAL POLL (LSU and Georgia). Not quite the same as Gerhart's 8-4 record, losing to the likes of 5-7 Wake Forest!
Remember how good OU's offense was against the BIG 12 last year? Remember how that offense looked against UF?
Tebow is by far the more feared adversary. He is simply the most dominating player in the game. There is no other who can so efficiently beat you down with his arm or legs.
Boohoo Horns fans cry me a river. If you don't like the stats or the way they are presented go write a blog yourself with you own stats.
Why don't we take a comparison of Gerhart, McCoy and Tebow vs. there top 3-4 teams that they have played based on current ranking and see who performs best. I want you to remember that Gerhart is the only one of the 3 candidates that does not benefit from 4 plus years of top 5 recruiting classes like I am sure McCoy and Tebow benefit from. He is playing with a freshman quarterback and a bad defense. Both Tebow and McCoy play in offenses that will not impress any pro scout and Gerhart is producing a a pro style offense.
It's pointless comparing stats between a running conference QB (Tebow) and a passing conference QB (McCoy). That said…the one stat that matters is all time wins….Colt McCoy. Most wins by QB in college football history. That's no accident.
For all of those wins, how many conference championships has McCoy won? If Nebraska somehow pulls off the upset this weekend, the answer will be zero.
David Greene had the career "wins" record… is he considered one of the all-time greats? No, he happened to be a good (not great) four-year starter on a team good enough to win an SEC championship. By the way, I will point out that Greene set the record when teams played a 11-game regular season, vice the 12-game regular seasons played since 2006.
The pass D stats is very skewed since no one in the SEC passes the ball.
#42 South Carolina
#53 Ole Miss
#113 Mississippi St
So using SKEWED stats like this is pretty stupid
Meanwhile, the Big XII in passing offense
#2 Texas Tech
#21 Texas A&M
#95 Oklahoma St
#98 Iowa St
#105 Kansas St
So the average SEC passing offense is #73
the average Big XII passing offense is #45
#2 Texas Tech 4568
#7 Kansas 3724
#13 Texas 3452
#15 Missouri 3420
#16 Oklahoma 3342
#21 Texas A&M 3299
#37 Baylor 2908
#45 colorado 2717
#93 Nebraska 2248
#95 Oklahoma St 2214
#98 Iowa St 2185
#105 Kansas St 2033
Average Big XII passing offense: 3,009
#10 Arkansas 3640
#42 South Carolina 2811
#47 Tennessee 2707
#53 Ole Miss 2673
#57 Auburn 2622
#64 Florida 2576
#79 Georgia 2457
#89 Alabama 2334
#100 LSU 2161
#111 Vanderbilt 1756
#113 Mississippi St 1732
#114 Kentucky 1626
Average SEC passing offense: 2,424
And that has nothing to do with bad pass defense? Didn't we hear this same argument last year about an all world Oklahoma offense that ripped through the Big 12? I recall them scoring the big 14 in the National Championship game…
I recall Texas beating Oklahoma at a real neutral site more impressively than Florida did.
Texas faced a HEALTHY Oklahoma, and beat them by 10 (Could have beat them by another td, if Mack was like dbag running up the score Meyer)
Florida beat a run down/beat up Oklahoma by 10.
Talking about Oklahoma when discussing McCoy/Tebow, Texas/Florida is about as relevant as me talking about Texas' 52-10 win V Arky,191yds total off (Their only score coming in garbage time on a fumble by backup QB that was returned for a td) and Floridas 38-7 win V Arky, 361yds total offense. (With Florida even trying to run up the score late, with only a minute left)
So even putting aside your logic of adding Tebow's run touchdowns in the formula for who is the best QB (not fb).
Using pass d #'s is lack for a better word, retarded.
Texas had the statistical #1 run D in the country, because they havent faced many top 20 running teams.
SEC is littered with top 20 pass d's, because NO ONE IN THE SEC CAN THROW THE BALL (except Arky)
pro tip, next time use facts/stats that cannot be debated. Don't spin things bro
Colt doesn't play any top passing defenses because everyone in the conference throws the ball every down. You cannot use raw numbers against a completely different set of teams and act like they mean the same thing. There are a lot of things you could use to show that Tebow is better, but you have found none of them
The Big12 is proven to be a weaker conference than the SEC. The big12 is worse than last year and McCoy's #'s aren't even as good as last years.
Tebow is the best college football player of all time, that is up for debate. That he is better than Colt McCoy is obvious to anyone who objectively has watched college football for the past 4 years.
lol@the author deleting my comments about the disparity of SEC passing offense to Big XII's (which explains why the SEC is littered with top 20 pass d's)
SEC is down this year as well, but I'm sure you refuse to admit this.
And just fyi, Vince Young >>>>>>>> Tim Chokebo
Didn't delete anything. Your messages got marked as spam by the system because you wrote seven replies. Stats are stats, my friend. Say whatever you want. I watched the Texas/A&M game. That wasn't two high powered offenses – that was two peewee level defenses. The number one defense in your conference gave up 542 yards to A&M – the same team that got beat 47-19 by Arkansas. BTW – Arkansas is literally the WORST defense in the SEC (ranked 12 out of 12).