Other Candidates

What about Chase Daniel?

He had a great year, but against far weaker competition. Mizzou played a far easier schedule than Florida (Sagarin SOS #34 vs.#5 for Florida). Daniel has a lower QB rating than Tebow (177.9 vs. 155.9) while playing only two top 20 defenses (including a questionable Kansas, which was the highest ranked defense he will have faced all year) and one top 25 pass defense. He's also only an average runner at quarterback. He ran the ball 93 times for 258 yards. While Daniel had four more passing touchdowns than Tebow, it took him 178 more pass attempts to get them (Daniel has 15 fewer total touchdowns). I keep reading that people are keeping an "open mind" about Daniel in the event that he performs well in the Big 12 Championship game. So a big game against the 70th ranked pass defense is going to prove to you that he is the most outstanding player in the country? Tebow had a ridiculous day against the 71st ranked pass defense - they are known as Florida Atlantic University.

But Darren McFadden had a great game against LSU.

True, and everyone conveniently forgets the game never would have gone to overtime without McFadden's fumbles early in the game. Darren McFadden did have some great games this year. Arkansas also used him in so many ways that his stats look gaudy. However, he also had several ugly games. Against Florida International (and it's 111th ranked rushing defense), he was held to 61 yards on 19 carries (3.2 YPC ). Of McFadden's 16 touchdowns, seven came against FIU, North Texas and Chattanooga. Tebow and McFadden both played in the SEC, so they have several common opponents. While McFadden definitely had flashes of brilliance during the season, Tebow outrushed him against Auburn (75 yards vs. 43 yards) and Mississippi (166 yards vs. 110). Tebow also passed for another 462 yards in those two games. Against their common opponents, McFadden was responsible for 6 total touchdowns -Tebow was responsible for 30. McFadden also amassed his stats feasting on some weaker competition - he faced only 2 Top 20 defenses (vs. Tebow's 4) and Arkansas lost four games against the 60th ranked Strength of Schedule.

I'm still thinking about Pat White.

Pat White has also had a great year. When you look deeper at his production and where it has come, you have to question a vote for him. He's faced three top 25 pass defenses. In those games, he averaged only 133 yards passing. While White has a good QB efficiency rating, it is significantly lower than Tebow's (153.2 vs. 177.9). Tebow has 50% more yards on the season (3973 yards vs. 2642 yards) and is responsible for 91 more yards per game than White (331 vs. 240). White also had a pretty bad game in West Virginia's loss to USF. While people give him a pass because he left the game early due to injury, he threw the ball as many times as he did in all but three games all season. Yet he only got 100 yards in the air and only 136 total yards in the game. His QB rating was 102.33 (vs. Tebow's 139.7 in his losses).

Isn't Dennis Dixon as good as any of them?

Dixon is probably one of the three best players in the country. He's had very good statistics against good competition. Dixon played the second most difficult schedule of all the contenders (SOS #7 vs. Florida's #5). He played two Top 20 defenses (vs. Tebow's four) and two Top 25 pass defenses (vs. Tebow's seven). Against that schedule, Dixon passed for an efficiency rating of 161.2 (vs. Tebow's 177.9) and 2,136 yards (vs. Tebow's 3,135). Dixon was also quite successful on the ground, gaining 583 yards rushing over the season (58.3 yards per game)(vs. Tebow's 838 and 69.83 YPG). For the season, Dixon scored 29 touchdowns (vs. Tebow's 51)

Colt Brennan has had another great statistical year.

Colt Brennan's had a lower QB efficiency rating (163.4 vs. 177.9) and his yards per carry was almost 1/4 of Tebow's. According to Sagarin, he amassed those stats against the 142nd ranked Strength of Schedule. He has four more passing touchdowns than Tebow, but it took him 105 more pass attempts to get them.

How does Tebow compare to past winners?

He beats every recent winner in passing efficiency hands down. He leads Carson Palmer's efficiency in his winning year (2002) by 30 points (177.9 vs. 147.9). The only quarterback winners since 2000 that are close are Troy Smith (167.5) and Jason White (167.6). However, it should be remembered that they achieved those numbers against much easier schedules. Sagarin ranked OSU's 2006 schedule as 24th strongest and Oklahoma's 2003 schedule as 21st strongest (numbers include the bowl game) vs. Florida's pre-bowl game SOS of 5th. Danny Wuerffel's 1996 QB efficiency rating was 170.6 (vs. Tebow's 177.9) and Vinny Testaverde's 1986 efficiency rating (165.8). So, he's be the most efficient passer in recent history to win the award, but QB efficiency rating only tells half the story. Tebow's effect on the game as a runner also has to be taken into account. In 2001, the vote was one of the closest in history. It was a passing quarterback (Rex Grossman) versus an option quarterback (Eric Crouch). Since Crouch wasn't a great passer and Grossman wasn't a mobile quarterback, let's compare Tebow to each player's best attribute. Grossman threw the ball very well in 2001. He threw for a 65.6% completion rate (vs. Tebow's 68.5%) and a QB efficiency rating of 170.8 (vs. Tebow's 177.9) against the 15th ranked SOS. Crouch accounted for fewer than half as many yards in the air as Grossman, but was a "mobile" quarterback in a Nebraska offense that gained over two-thirds of its offensive yardage on the ground. Crouch ran the ball 203 times for 1,115 yards (5.49 YPC) and 18 rushing touchdowns. Crouch averaged 93 yards per game against the 12th ranked SOS. Since Tebow ran a very different offense, his numbers aren't quite as good. So far in 2007, Tebow has run the ball 194 for 838 yards (4.32 YPC) and 22 rushing touchdowns. Tebow has accounted for an average of 70 rushing yards per game. Tebow is a more efficient passer than Grossman was (with similar yardage) and earned only slightly fewer yards on the ground than Crouch. Matt Leinart won the award in 2004 with 28 touchdown passes...Reggie Bush won the award in 2005 with 15 touchdown runs. Tebow has more than both of them in one year.

	What about Chase Daniel? He had a great year, but against far weaker competition. Mizzou played a far easier schedule than Florida (Sagarin SOS #34 vs.#5 for Florida). Daniel has a lower QB rating than Tebow (177.9 vs. 155.9) while playing only two top 20 defenses (including a questionable Kansas, which was the highest ranked defense he will have faced all year) and one top 25 pass defense. He's also only an average runner at quarterback. He ran the ball 93 times for 258 yards. While Daniel had four more passing touchdowns than Tebow, it took him 178 more pass attempts to get them (Daniel has 15 fewer total touchdowns). I keep reading that people are keeping an "open mind" about Daniel in the event that he performs well in the Big 12 Championship game. So a big game against the 70th ranked pass defense is going to prove to you that he is the most outstanding player in the country? Tebow had a ridiculous day against the 71st ranked pass defense - they are known as Florida Atlantic University. But Darren McFadden had a great game against LSU. True, and everyone conveniently forgets the game never would have gone to overtime without McFadden's fumbles early in the game. Darren McFadden did have some great games this year. Arkansas also used him in so many ways that his stats look gaudy. However, he also had several ugly games. Against Florida International (and it's 111th ranked rushing defense), he was held to 61 yards on 19 carries (3.2 YPC ). Of McFadden's 16 touchdowns, seven came against FIU, North Texas and Chattanooga. Tebow and McFadden both played in the SEC, so they have several common opponents. While McFadden definitely had flashes of brilliance during the season, Tebow outrushed him against Auburn (75 yards vs. 43 yards) and Mississippi (166 yards vs. 110). Tebow also passed for another 462 yards in those two games. Against their common opponents, McFadden was responsible for 6 total touchdowns -Tebow was responsible for 30. McFadden also amassed his stats feasting on some weaker competition - he faced only 2 Top 20 defenses (vs. Tebow's 4) and Arkansas lost four games against the 60th ranked Strength of Schedule. I'm still thinking about Pat White. Pat White has also had a great year. When you look deeper at his production and where it has come, you have to question a vote for him. He's faced three top 25 pass defenses. In those games, he averaged only 133 yards passing. While White has a good QB efficiency rating, it is significantly lower than Tebow's (153.2 vs. 177.9). Tebow has 50% more yards on the season (3973 yards vs. 2642 yards) and is responsible for 91 more yards per game than White (331 vs. 240). White also had a pretty bad game in West Virginia's loss to USF. While people give him a pass because he left the game early due to injury, he threw the ball as many times as he did in all but three games all season. Yet he only got 100 yards in the air and only 136 total yards in the game. His QB rating was 102.33 (vs. Tebow's 139.7 in his losses). Isn't Dennis Dixon as good as any of them? Dixon is probably one of the three best players in the country. He's had very good statistics against good competition. Dixon played the second most difficult schedule of all the contenders (SOS #7 vs. Florida's #5). He played two Top 20 defenses (vs. Tebow's four) and two Top 25 pass defenses (vs. Tebow's seven). Against that schedule, Dixon passed for an efficiency rating of 161.2 (vs. Tebow's 177.9) and 2,136 yards (vs. Tebow's 3,135). Dixon was also quite successful on the ground, gaining 583 yards rushing over the season (58.3 yards per game)(vs. Tebow's 838 and 69.83 YPG). For the season, Dixon scored 29 touchdowns (vs. Tebow's 51) Colt Brennan has had another great statistical year. Colt Brennan's had a lower QB efficiency rating (163.4 vs. 177.9) and his yards per carry was almost 1/4 of Tebow's. According to Sagarin, he amassed those stats against the 142nd ranked Strength of Schedule. He has four more passing touchdowns than Tebow, but it took him 105 more pass attempts to get them. How does Tebow compare to past winners? He beats every recent winner in passing efficiency hands down. He leads Carson Palmer's efficiency in his winning year (2002) by 30 points (177.9 vs. 147.9). The only quarterback winners since 2000 that are close are Troy Smith (167.5) and Jason White (167.6). However, it should be remembered that they achieved those numbers against much easier schedules. Sagarin ranked OSU's 2006 schedule as 24th strongest and Oklahoma's 2003 schedule as 21st strongest (numbers include the bowl game) vs. Florida's pre-bowl game SOS of 5th. Danny Wuerffel's 1996 QB efficiency rating was 170.6 (vs. Tebow's 177.9) and Vinny Testaverde's 1986 efficiency rating (165.8). So, he's be the most efficient passer in recent history to win the award, but QB efficiency rating only tells half the story. Tebow's effect on the game as a runner also has to be taken into account. In 2001, the vote was one of the closest in history. It was a passing quarterback (Rex Grossman) versus an option quarterback (Eric Crouch). Since Crouch wasn't a great passer and Grossman wasn't a mobile quarterback, let's compare Tebow to each player's best attribute. Grossman threw the ball very well in 2001. He threw for a 65.6% completion rate (vs. Tebow's 68.5%) and a QB efficiency rating of 170.8 (vs. Tebow's 177.9) against the 15th ranked SOS. Crouch accounted for fewer than half as many yards in the air as Grossman, but was a "mobile" quarterback in a Nebraska offense that gained over two-thirds of its offensive yardage on the ground. Crouch ran the ball 203 times for 1,115 yards (5.49 YPC) and 18 rushing touchdowns. Crouch averaged 93 yards per game against the 12th ranked SOS. Since Tebow ran a very different offense, his numbers aren't quite as good. So far in 2007, Tebow has run the ball 194 for 838 yards (4.32 YPC) and 22 rushing touchdowns. Tebow has accounted for an average of 70 rushing yards per game. Tebow is a more efficient passer than Grossman was (with similar yardage) and earned only slightly fewer yards on the ground than Crouch. Matt Leinart won the award in 2004 with 28 touchdown passes...Reggie Bush won the award in 2005 with 15 touchdown runs. Tebow has more than both of them in one year.