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	<title>HE15MAN.NET &#187; The Award</title>
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	<link>http://www.he15man.net</link>
	<description>Tim Tebow for The 2009 HE15MAN</description>
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		<title>Stats Manipulation</title>
		<link>http://www.he15man.net/2009/12/01/stats-manipulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.he15man.net/2009/12/01/stats-manipulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:24:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guilf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Award]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.he15man.net/?p=288</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LOTS of comments and e-mails.  Making friends and influencing people in the Texas contingent.  My favorite comment is the &#8220;great stats manipulation&#8221;&#8230;an inference that I&#8217;ve made up statistics.  My friends &#8211; touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and yards per attempt are stats directly from the NCAA&#8217;s quarterback efficiency statistics page.  They don&#8217;t JUST keep total yardage [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LOTS of comments and e-mails.  Making friends and influencing people in the Texas contingent.  My favorite comment is the &#8220;great stats manipulation&#8221;&#8230;an inference that I&#8217;ve made up statistics.  My friends &#8211; touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and yards per attempt are stats directly from the NCAA&#8217;s quarterback efficiency statistics page.  They don&#8217;t JUST keep total yardage stats&#8230;although it appears you wish they did.  These numbers should make a difference.  How many yards does every pass attempt actually gain?  How often does your quarterback throw a costly interception?  These stats are all related to a QB&#8217;s Passer Rating&#8230;how efficient is your quarterbacK?  This is probably the most important stat kept, particularly in the NFL.</p>
<p>There is also a huge outcry that the reason the Big 12 pass defenses are all ranked so low is because all of the offenses are so amazing that even your NFL caliber defenses can&#8217;t keep up.  I hear you.  I&#8217;ve started an analysis of your defenses over the past three years.  I&#8217;ll publish a story in the next 24 hours with an analysis.</p>
<p>Also to come &#8211; a career analysis of McCoy and Tebow.  Many have brought up the career wins record and how McCoy deserves the award just for that.  While not a career award, I&#8217;d argue that the lack of a clear frontrunner this year should make the voters use that as a contingency category.  So let&#8217;s look at those numbers.</p>
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		<slash:comments>7</slash:comments>
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		<title>Week 13 Review</title>
		<link>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/29/week-13-review/</link>
		<comments>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/29/week-13-review/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Nov 2009 02:30:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guilf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Other Candidates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Award]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.he15man.net/?p=239</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let&#8217;s be realistic &#8211; none of the candidates played in games that should have been particularly close.  A&#38;M is bad, as is Florida State.  Auburn shouldn&#8217;t have been a problem for Alabama.  Notre Dame wouldn&#8217;t be trouble for any Top 20 team &#8211; Stanford just isn&#8217;t that good, but&#8230;  I hear the cries of &#8220;rivalry [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s be realistic &#8211; none of the candidates played in games that should have been particularly close.  A&amp;M is bad, as is Florida State.  Auburn shouldn&#8217;t have been a problem for Alabama.  Notre Dame wouldn&#8217;t be trouble for any Top 20 team &#8211; Stanford just isn&#8217;t that good, but&#8230;  I hear the cries of &#8220;rivalry game&#8221;.  Whatever.  Do your business.</p>
<p>Tebow did what was expected of him.  Very good numbers against a very mediocre defense.  How far the (once) mighty Seminoles have fallen.  17/21 for 221 yards.  3 touchdowns 0 Interceptions.  90 Yards Rushing and 2 Rushing TDs.  Oh &#8211; and he didn&#8217;t play the whole game.</p>
<p>On a personal note &#8211; it was amazing to be there.  The mood was electric.  I saw men openly weep.  I know that many are sick of the Tebow coverage, but it&#8217;s not like he&#8217;s asked for it.  And he&#8217;s been good for the game.</p>
<p>McCoy had a ridiculous stats day.  24/40 for 304 yards and four touchdowns.  175 yards rushing for 1 touchdown.  111th ranked pass defense.  107th ranked total defense.  Meh.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m a big fan of Gerhart.  Old school, hard nosed player.  Also had a ridiculous week against weak competition.  29 rushes for 205 yards.  1 reception for 33 yards.  89th ranked rush defense.</p>
<p>The Twitter world has been going crazy with these stats.  I plan to actually go through the season stats and put them into context as the week goes on.</p>
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		<title>Spiller Has Been Good, Not Great</title>
		<link>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/25/spiller-good/</link>
		<comments>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/25/spiller-good/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:20:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guilf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Other Candidates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Award]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.he15man.net/?p=206</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Not too long ago I hoped and hoped for the better part of a summer that the rumors were true and CJ Spiller would transfer to Florida.  The guy has skills and should be a great player at the next level.  That being said, there must be some desperation from the previous running back winners [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not too long ago I hoped and hoped for the better part of a summer that the rumors were true and CJ Spiller would transfer to Florida.  The guy has skills and should be a great player at the next level.  That being said, there must be some desperation from the previous running back winners to add to their numbers.  Whether you believe that the Heisman is an award for great statistical performances or an MVP award, Spiller hasn&#8217;t had a Heisman year.  He&#8217;s an all-purpose player who hasn&#8217;t excelled in any arena.</p>
<p>Spiller&#8217;s an all-purpose player, but is first and foremost a running back.  For the season he averages 81.2 yards per game on the ground and currently ranks 51st in the country.  He&#8217;s broken 100 yards three times.  Once was against a very good TCU defense.  The other two times were against Wake Forest and Florida State (93rd and 105th ranked rush defenses).  He struggled against a number of very mediocre defenses, including being held to 72 yards by a very poor Maryland defense in a losing effort.</p>
<p>Spiller is also used as a wideout in some formations.  He gained more than 100 yards via the air once all season&#8230;against Miami and their 59th ranked pass offense.  He averaged 38 yards per game as a receiver.</p>
<p>A Heisman winner should have a profound effect on their team.  They should make their team better.  While decent this year, Clemson is 8-3.  Their rushing offense is ranked 46th in the country.  Their passing offense is ranked 80th.  They&#8217;re 29th in the country in kick return yardage.  But their defense is ranked 12th in the country.  Which side of the ball is willing Clemson to the victories they have?</p>
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		<title>Is Ingram Even The Best Bama Back?</title>
		<link>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/24/is-ingram-even-the-best-bama-back/</link>
		<comments>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/24/is-ingram-even-the-best-bama-back/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:41:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guilf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Other Candidates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Award]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.he15man.net/?p=189</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I love Mark Ingram.  I think he&#8217;s a great player and a good human being.  But he&#8217;s a sophomore and I think that awarding the trophy to a sophomore should be reserved for an extremely special case.  A once in a long time talent.  I&#8217;m quite certain that Ingram isn&#8217;t yet the best running back [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I love Mark Ingram.  I think he&#8217;s a great player and a good human being.  But he&#8217;s a sophomore and I think that awarding the trophy to a sophomore should be reserved for an extremely special case.  A once in a long time talent.  I&#8217;m quite certain that Ingram isn&#8217;t yet the best running back in the country, let alone the best player.  I&#8217;m not even sure he&#8217;s the best back on his own team.  To work through it, I decided to look at his season week by week.</p>
<p>He&#8217;s had some ridiculous games.  248 yards against South Carolina on national television.  But he&#8217;s had some  stinkers as well.  Four of the first eight games he didn&#8217;t break 100 yards.  Held to 50 yards and 2.9 YPC against Arkansas and their 69th ranked rush defense.  Outrushed or out averaged by players on his own team three times during the year.</p>
<p>Ingram&#8217;s had a great year.  But he&#8217;s run behind a fantastic line and been outrushed by players on his own team several times this year.  Alabama has also played exactly two top 50 rush defenses.  Richardson averages 5.33 YPC.  Upchurch averages 6.33 YPC. This vote if for the unofficial best player in the country and I&#8217;m not even sure he&#8217;s the best back on his own team.</p>
<p>For what it&#8217;s worth, Florida and Alabama met seven common opponents.  Against them, Ingram rushed for an average of 127.3 yards.  Tebow rushed for an average of 91.6 yards.  Tebow&#8217;s a quarterback.</p>
<p>Note: In my first published version of this post, I stated that Alabama had faced one Top 50 rush defense.  LSU rush defense had risen and I hadn&#8217;t noted it.  They&#8217;ve played the 39th and 48th ranked rush defenses.  I apologize to Bama nation for the error.</p>
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		<title>Tebow&#8217;s Year NOT &#8220;Disappointing&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/23/tebows-year-not-disappointing/</link>
		<comments>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/23/tebows-year-not-disappointing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:49:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guilf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tebow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Award]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.he15man.net/?p=144</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This seems to be the theme of the Tebow naysayers.  Yeah, he&#8217;s good but he&#8217;s had such a disappointing year.  Not sure how 11-0 in the SEC can be considered a disappointment, but I understand that his numbers haven&#8217;t been as &#8220;out of this world&#8221; as they have been in previous seasons.  You know what?  [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This seems to be the theme of the Tebow naysayers.  Yeah, he&#8217;s good but he&#8217;s had such a disappointing year.  Not sure how 11-0 in the SEC can be considered a disappointment, but I understand that his numbers haven&#8217;t been as &#8220;out of this world&#8221; as they have been in previous seasons.  You know what?  It was planned this way from the beginning of the season and the Gators may be a better TEAM than they were last year.</p>
<p>Florida lost their two leading receivers from last year and both are now playing on Sundays.  I&#8217;m not sure you can overemphasize how big a loss Percy Harvin was.  He was a once in a decade skill player, which is being demonstrated by the fact that he&#8217;s the current favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year award.  Carl Moore and Andre Debose were lost before the season ever started.  Deonte Thompson has a ton of raw skill, but has not developed into a &#8220;go to&#8221; guy yet.  That basically left Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez and some very young and very raw receivers to try to fill out Florida&#8217;s four and five receivers sets.  Step into Urban Meyer&#8217;s shoes&#8230;you have ridiculous skill and speed, but not much experience on the outside.  What do you do?  You focus on your option offense and lean on your senior quarterback.  The result?  Florida has the ninth ranked rushing offense in the country&#8230;ahead of Alabama.</p>
<p>What do you want from your quarterback in this different system?</p>
<p>You want him to be a team player and not be disappointed that his stats may not be comparable to previous years.  Check.</p>
<p>You want him to efficiently distribute the ball.  13 players have run the ball for Florida this year.  The team averages over 5.4 yards per carry.  The three main ball carriers after Tebow all average over 6.0 YPC.</p>
<p>You want him to win.  11-0 so far says it all.</p>
<p>You want him to be efficient when you pass the ball.  To determine that, let&#8217;s compare Tebow to the only other quarterback who is still considered a candidate for the trophy, Colt McCoy.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-196" title="tebowmccoy" src="http://www.he15man.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/tebowmccoy1.png" alt="tebowmccoy" width="494" height="92" /></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Tebow has a better passer rating, more yards per attempt and a virtually identical yards per play average.  He has a significantly higher touchdown percentage, a lower interception percentage and more total touchdowns.  He also did it against much better pass defenses.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Oh, and he&#8217;s also run for over 700 yards this season.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">What a disappointment.</p>
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		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>McCoy&#8217;s Numbers</title>
		<link>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/22/mccoys-number/</link>
		<comments>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/22/mccoys-number/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 01:27:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guilf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Other Candidates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Award]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.he15man.net/?p=127</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Love the Heismanpundit.  Great site and he&#8217;s usually dead on.  His predictions today make me a little ill.  He seems to feel the award is Ingram&#8217;s to win or will fall back to McCoy.  They&#8217;re both great players and I buy Ingram (for the most part).  But McCoy will be another disaster of a winner [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Love the <a href="http://www.heismanpundit.com" target="_blank">Heismanpundit</a>.  Great site and he&#8217;s usually dead on.  His predictions today make me a little ill.  He seems to feel the award is Ingram&#8217;s to win or will fall back to McCoy.  They&#8217;re both great players and I buy Ingram (for the most part).  But McCoy will be another disaster of a winner just like Bradford was last year.  Do these voters actually pay attention to the season or just look at stats lines or (worse yet) just watch the Bristol network for their opinions.  Understand this&#8230;Big 12 pass defenses suck.  They&#8217;re not just mediocre.  They suck.</p>
<p>Didn&#8217;t we learn anything last year?  Bradford and McCoy and Reesing and Harrell all put up Heisman Trophy-like numbers.  Then (some of them) met real defenses in bowl games and got stuffed.  Then people realized that, &#8220;hey, maybe we should have thought about the odds of four record breaking quarterbacks all playing in the same conference at the same time against good defenses being statistically improbable (more like impossible).&#8221;</p>
<p>Colt McCoy&#8217;s numbers this year have come against weak defenses.  The average pass defense he&#8217;s played this year was ranked 79th in the country.  Take away the two decent Oklahoma teams and the highest ranked pass defense  Texas has played is UCF.  By the numbers, he had a great day Saturday &#8211; against a mediocre and beaten down Kansas team (59th in total defense, 88th in pass defense and probably losing their coach).  AND he stayed in the full game in a 31-point blowout (why does Mack Brown have the rep of being a class act?).</p>
<p>Now we can argue all day whether the stiff arm trophy still has a place as the premiere award in college football.  Nonetheless, the voters will elevate some player to the list of college football&#8217;s greats.  Colt McCoy is a fine player who has won a lot of games, but players with eye-popping statistics from the WAC and other conferences seem to be excluded due to the perception of weaker competition.  The average pass defense in the WAC this year is currently ranked 56th nationally.  The Big 12&#8242;s is 70th (and is ranked the fifth best conference by Sagarin).</p>
<p>Has McCoy done something special?  Sure.  Has he done it against special competition?  I think we all know the answer to that.</p>
<p>(Note: 9 of the top 25 pass defenses in the country are in the SEC.)</p>
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		<item>
		<title>What&#8217;s Up with The Voters?</title>
		<link>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/20/the-voters/</link>
		<comments>http://www.he15man.net/2009/11/20/the-voters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:29:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guilf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Award]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.he15man.net/?p=38</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This award is in danger of becoming the Sportscenter highlight award. Players have appeared and vanished off the watch lists because of one good or bad game. How many of these voters are actually watching these games? Case Keenum’s candidacy was never built on wins or strength of schedule&#8230;it was built on gaudy numbers. Then [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This award is in danger of becoming the Sportscenter highlight award. Players have appeared and vanished off the watch lists because of one good or bad game. How many of these voters are actually watching these games?</p>
<p>Case Keenum’s candidacy was never built on wins or strength of schedule&#8230;it was built on gaudy numbers. Then they lose to UCF (their second loss of the season to a team they should have beaten) and it’s over.  Have his stats somehow disappeared?</p>
<p>Toby Gerhart gets SportsCenter cred when Stanford beats down a very mediocre USC (whose defense is currently ranked 20 spots lower than Temple’s) and he’s a leader?</p>
<p>CJ Spiller averages 88 yards rushing per game and has broken 100 yards rushing exactly three times this season. But someone sees him tear up Florida State (and their stellar 105th ranked rush defense) and he’s a top candidate?</p>
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