LOTS of comments and e-mails. Making friends and influencing people in the Texas contingent. My favorite comment is the “great stats manipulation”…an inference that I’ve made up statistics. My friends – touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and yards per attempt are stats directly from the NCAA’s quarterback efficiency statistics page. They don’t JUST keep total yardage stats…although it appears you wish they did. These numbers should make a difference. How many yards does every pass attempt actually gain? How often does your quarterback throw a costly interception? These stats are all related to a QB’s Passer Rating…how efficient is your quarterbacK? This is probably the most important stat kept, particularly in the NFL.
There is also a huge outcry that the reason the Big 12 pass defenses are all ranked so low is because all of the offenses are so amazing that even your NFL caliber defenses can’t keep up. I hear you. I’ve started an analysis of your defenses over the past three years. I’ll publish a story in the next 24 hours with an analysis.
Also to come – a career analysis of McCoy and Tebow. Many have brought up the career wins record and how McCoy deserves the award just for that. While not a career award, I’d argue that the lack of a clear frontrunner this year should make the voters use that as a contingency category. So let’s look at those numbers.
It appears from much of the discussion on the major sites and in Twitterland that (unless someone else does something amazing) the Heisman will come down to Gerhart, McCoy and Tebow. I think Gerhart has been fantastic this year, but he’s going to struggle when it’s all said and done. He’s on the west coast, so many of the voters haven’t seen him. Plus, Stanford is 8-4 with a loss to a very mediocre Wake Forest team. This doesn’t mean I’ll ignore his candidacy this week, but I think there’s a pretty good chance that it will come down to McCoy and Tebow for the trophy.
McCoy’s got great numbers and for those voters that will just pull their stats lines, he’ll be their guy. I think McCoy is a very good quarterback. But I think his level of competition merits scrutinizing those stats of his. I’ve written before that Tebow’s numbers come from this year’s coaching philosophy, not some failure on his part. The Gators have become a team focused on running the ball first and rarely throwing it down field. They also play in the very defensive minded SouthEastern Conference. Say what you want about a “down year,” but the SEC still plays the best defense in the nation.
Total passing yards McCoy beats Tebow hands down. But when you look at things like total interceptions, Tebow has fewer than half the interceptions of McCoy – again because of the offensive mindset. But what about efficiency and effectiveness at the position. When you do attempt a pass, how many yards do you average? How frequently do you throw a touchdown? How infrequently do you throw costly interceptions? And how do you perform when you play the best opposition?
Overall, both players have played effective, efficient football. Their best stat line is 12-0. However, how did they contribute to being there?
Tebow has the better passer rating, TD percentage, Interception percentage and more total touchdowns. He also has a significantly better passer rating and yards per attempt. Most importantly, he’s faced far better overall pass defenses.
But how have they both performed while under pressure? How much do those overall numbers change when you focus on just their best competition. I looked at the same stats for games against only the Top 40 pass defenses. (Note: when I first published this article, I was asked almost immediately “Why Top 40 pass defenses?”. The inference was that I am cherrypicking good numbers for Tebow. I chose 40 because that is the exact ranking of the second best pass defense Texas played. They didn’t play another pass defense in the Top 70. Once you get to the bottom 50 pass defenses, I can no longer justify it as checking stats against the “best competition”.)
The difference between the quarterbacks becomes far more pronounced when you look at these stats. Tebow’s numbers are virtually identical to his full season numbers. McCoy’s drop substantially. In fact, McCoy’s average stat line for these games plunges – 196 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Let’s be realistic – none of the candidates played in games that should have been particularly close. A&M is bad, as is Florida State. Auburn shouldn’t have been a problem for Alabama. Notre Dame wouldn’t be trouble for any Top 20 team – Stanford just isn’t that good, but… I hear the cries of “rivalry game”. Whatever. Do your business.
Tebow did what was expected of him. Very good numbers against a very mediocre defense. How far the (once) mighty Seminoles have fallen. 17/21 for 221 yards. 3 touchdowns 0 Interceptions. 90 Yards Rushing and 2 Rushing TDs. Oh – and he didn’t play the whole game.
On a personal note – it was amazing to be there. The mood was electric. I saw men openly weep. I know that many are sick of the Tebow coverage, but it’s not like he’s asked for it. And he’s been good for the game.
McCoy had a ridiculous stats day. 24/40 for 304 yards and four touchdowns. 175 yards rushing for 1 touchdown. 111th ranked pass defense. 107th ranked total defense. Meh.
I’m a big fan of Gerhart. Old school, hard nosed player. Also had a ridiculous week against weak competition. 29 rushes for 205 yards. 1 reception for 33 yards. 89th ranked rush defense.
The Twitter world has been going crazy with these stats. I plan to actually go through the season stats and put them into context as the week goes on.
Who watched any of the Mizzou-Kansas game last night and lost the fact that this game was supposed to be between two teams from one of the top conferences? This conference is getting the benefit of the doubt in the National Title race. If everything goes according to plan this weekend, it’s expected champion will be going to the BCS National Championship game over TCU and Cincinnati and Boise State.
The average pass defense in the Big 12 is 71st in the country. I’ve heard some Big 12 fans claim that it’s that their pass offenses are just “so good”. Amazing claim after watching the Mizzou-Kansas debacle. Three yard passes continually turned into 50+ yard plays due to what seemed to be dozens of missedd tackles (yeah, impossible – but did you watch the game?).
This has direct relationship to the Heisman race. Colt McCoy has earned his yards against these same defenses. If he’s a leader heading into the final weekend of the season, why aren’t Todd Reesing and Taylor Potts on the radar? (more yards/game)
Competition matters and no one will tell me the SEC isn’t the best competition week in/week out.
For what it’s worth, McCoy has faced one good pass defense…Oklahoma’s in October. Ranked 22nd in the nation. McCoy’s performance? 127 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 Interception…84.5 passer rating.
November 29, 2009 Comments Off
As I wrote just a couple of days ago, Ingram may not even be the best back in Alabama’s backfield let alone the nation. Ingram rushed 16 times for 30 yards against the 88th ranked rush defense in the country. Freshman Trent Richardson gained 51 yards on 15 rushes. Love the kid and his work ethic, but Bama Nation may have to wait until next year for their first Heisman.
Twitterland is going nuts tonight over this game. Tons of fun to watch, but an utter embarrassment to anyone who loves college football. McCoy had a great night and I have to assume all those voters that only read the stats lines tomorrow will all of the sudden LOVE McCoy. He had ludicrous stats against an abysmal defense. 110th ranked against the pass. 76th ranked against the rush. One of the ten worst pass defenses in college football. Anyone who actually watched this game saw this is not due to world-class, unstoppable offenses. I’ve been reading that the award is coming down to McCoy and Ingram. If so, can’t say I won’t be disappointed. McCoy is another Big 12 quarterback who WILL be exposed in the bowl game and it will further tarnish the award in the mind of the fans.
Not too long ago I hoped and hoped for the better part of a summer that the rumors were true and CJ Spiller would transfer to Florida. The guy has skills and should be a great player at the next level. That being said, there must be some desperation from the previous running back winners to add to their numbers. Whether you believe that the Heisman is an award for great statistical performances or an MVP award, Spiller hasn’t had a Heisman year. He’s an all-purpose player who hasn’t excelled in any arena.
Spiller’s an all-purpose player, but is first and foremost a running back. For the season he averages 81.2 yards per game on the ground and currently ranks 51st in the country. He’s broken 100 yards three times. Once was against a very good TCU defense. The other two times were against Wake Forest and Florida State (93rd and 105th ranked rush defenses). He struggled against a number of very mediocre defenses, including being held to 72 yards by a very poor Maryland defense in a losing effort.
Spiller is also used as a wideout in some formations. He gained more than 100 yards via the air once all season…against Miami and their 59th ranked pass offense. He averaged 38 yards per game as a receiver.
A Heisman winner should have a profound effect on their team. They should make their team better. While decent this year, Clemson is 8-3. Their rushing offense is ranked 46th in the country. Their passing offense is ranked 80th. They’re 29th in the country in kick return yardage. But their defense is ranked 12th in the country. Which side of the ball is willing Clemson to the victories they have?
Got an e-mail about my frequent mentions of rankings. Have also been reminded that team X was ranked Y in defense when team Z played them.
First, my “obsession”. It’s not perfect, but by this point in the season rankings should give you a good idea whether your team or their opponent have a great, good, mediocre or poor rush defense or pass offense. I don’t think much of a 10 place difference in the rankings…that could be impacted by one or two anomalous games. But if your team has the 86th ranked pass offense and they’re playing the 3rd ranked pass defense, 9 games out of 10 they’ll probably struggle throwing the ball effectively.
By this point of the season, there’s been enough inter- and intra-conference play to make a difference. And I believe you ignore this stuff to your peril. I discussed the Big 12 with dozens of people last year. Many in the media kept talking about their “high flying offenses” and “amazing quarterbacks” – there were four or five quarterbacks that put up twice in a decade offensive numbers. Statistics tells you that its far more likely that the pass defenses were bad rather than all of these fantastic quarterbacks coming at the same time in the same conference. Many in the media preferred the good story of all the great quarterbacks. Many of those quarterbacks struggled against strong defenses in the bowl games.
As for the team’s ranking when your team played them. Means nothing. Say you played someone in September and their offense was ranked fifth in the nation then, but it’s 70th now. You played a bottom half offense. They just hadn’t played any defenses with a pulse yet. The rankings today are what they should be. There are some minor caveats. If your team had played Oklahoma before it last Bradford and Gresham, you would have some argument. But losses that extreme have been relatively rare this season.
I love Mark Ingram. I think he’s a great player and a good human being. But he’s a sophomore and I think that awarding the trophy to a sophomore should be reserved for an extremely special case. A once in a long time talent. I’m quite certain that Ingram isn’t yet the best running back in the country, let alone the best player. I’m not even sure he’s the best back on his own team. To work through it, I decided to look at his season week by week.
He’s had some ridiculous games. 248 yards against South Carolina on national television. But he’s had some stinkers as well. Four of the first eight games he didn’t break 100 yards. Held to 50 yards and 2.9 YPC against Arkansas and their 69th ranked rush defense. Outrushed or out averaged by players on his own team three times during the year.
Ingram’s had a great year. But he’s run behind a fantastic line and been outrushed by players on his own team several times this year. Alabama has also played exactly two top 50 rush defenses. Richardson averages 5.33 YPC. Upchurch averages 6.33 YPC. This vote if for the unofficial best player in the country and I’m not even sure he’s the best back on his own team.
For what it’s worth, Florida and Alabama met seven common opponents. Against them, Ingram rushed for an average of 127.3 yards. Tebow rushed for an average of 91.6 yards. Tebow’s a quarterback.
Note: In my first published version of this post, I stated that Alabama had faced one Top 50 rush defense. LSU rush defense had risen and I hadn’t noted it. They’ve played the 39th and 48th ranked rush defenses. I apologize to Bama nation for the error.
