What’s so great about Tebow? Probably the most asked question I’ve gotten in my three years (on and off) of this blog. I understand that he gets a ton of media attention. I also understand that there are scores of young men in college football that do good things for their colleges, their churches and their communities. But I still contend there is (and will be) only one Tim Tebow. The man is a class act all the way.
A lot of e-mails and messages about the SEC Championship Game. Florida got beat. Florida met a very good and very well coached Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama took Florida out of their game pretty quickly. For those writers that want to place blame for the loss on Tebow, I think it’s important to point out his stat line for the day…
20/35, 247 yards, 1 TD, 1INT, 63 yards rushing
This was, in no way, a Tebow inspired loss.
There are lots of rumors around Titletown that Dunlap’s arrest/suspension was a symptom of greater issues among the team’s “leaders”. But no excuses can (or should) be made. Alabama flat out beat the Gators.
Oh, and all you McCoy fans really should look at what your QB did against the three good defenses Texas played this season and then re-read my comparisons – before you spout off. If they’re not the best, Alabama is one of the two best defenses you’ll have played this year. I do not expect McCoy to thrive in that game.
While this comparison and these stats have no real standing in the Heisman discussion, should both players excel in their conference championship games, some voters might choose to peek at career numbers before filling out their ballots. Also, about 10,000 Texas fans have visited the site and a decent portion of them keep reminding me about McCoy setting the total wins record.
Whatever way you look at it, these are the two best quarterbacks of the past several years. They’ve dominated statistical categories, games, their conferences and many of the national races. I’m going to let you do your own analysis…just providing the numbers. Note: Tebow only started three years. He participated in the offense as a freshman, but I have broken down some numbers into total and “as a starter”.
The most important stats (to most). Wins, win% and championships.
And, finally, context. Who’d you do it against? Seems some of the readers don’t see the relevancy in this stuff, but why do we keep stats if not to compare? And if opponents don’t really matter then why don’t we consider FCS and even high school teams/players for the big awards and bowl games?
We’re really going to do this again this year. Big 12 fans are going to try to perpetrate the fraud that all of their offenses are so stellar that it just makes their defenses look bad…thus the poor rankings of their defenses. And by said “reason,” they’ve deluded themselves into thinking that SEC defenses are so highly ranked each year is because the conference’s offenses are so miserable the defenses look great by comparison.
Now to get to this spot, we have to ignore virtually every expert in the universe. Sagarin has said the SEC is the number one most powerful conference for four years and still does today (Big 12 is currently fifth). Teamrankings, one of the leading bettor tools on the web, has said the SEC is the number one conference for four years now and still does today (Big 12 is currently fifth). And we’ll ignore the NCAA official stats that say that, on average, the SEC has far more powerful defenses than the Big 12.
So we’ll ignore the facts and the experts and instead discuss the head-to-head games that the conferences have played. But let me preface this by saying that I’m a firm believer that last year’s games don’t mean much, but several Texas fans continually refer to the Texas-Arkansas game as some proof of their theory, so I will look at the results of all the Big 12-SEC matchups since last year.
Result (Game detail below): In five games, SEC defenses played Big 12 offenses with higher conference ranks. In five of five games, the SEC defense held the Big 12 offense to below their average season output in yardage (differentials were from just a few yards to well over 100). In 3 of 5 games, the SEC won. In the remaining two, two Big 12 teams that finished the seasons a combined 21-4 beat SEC teams that finished the seasons 12-12.
I may be wrong, but I think that’s all I’ve got. Stats, power rankings and game results. I’m sure that won’t be convincing to the Big 12 fans, but that may be all I can put together.
Game Detail
September 27, 2008. Arkansas (the SEC’s 10th ranked pass defense and last ranked total defense) travels to Texas. The game is a debacle. Arkansas turns the ball over 3 times and gets demolished by the Longhorns. But Texas’s offense that averaged 475 yards for the season only gained 421. Minor victory when you get beat by 35. But the SEC’s last ranked defense didn’t exactly get rolled over by the mighty Longhorns’ offense as much as the Razorback offense couldn’t hang on to the football.
January 2, 2009. Ole Miss plays Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. This looks like it could be a slaughter. The Big 12′s number one pass offense against the SEC’s last ranked pass defense. And scoring for Ole Miss would have to be a problem against the Big 12′s third ranked pass defense and fifth ranked total defense. Not so much. Mississippi went for 515 yards of offense (over 100 yards more than their season average) and beat the mighty Red Raiders 47-34. Tech was held to just over 60 yards short of their season average.
January 8, 2009. BCS National Championship Game, Florida vs. Oklahoma. Each conference’s number one offense vs. the other’s number three defense. The Oklahoma offense that spent the season rolling through most of the Big 12, gaining 562 yards per game and scoring 54 points per game was held to 363 yards. Florida gained slightly more than their season average (480 vs. 442) and won 24-14.
September 5, 2009. Georgia at Oklahoma State. Georgia is a lower middle of the road SEC team. #7 Defense & #8 Offense would finish the season with a 7-5 record. Oklahoma State has the Big 12′s #7 offense and #4 Defense and would finish the season 9-3. Georgia played poorly on offense and committed three turnovers, losing the game 24-10. Yet Georgia’s lowly SEC defense held OSU to 69 yards less than their season average for offensive output (307 vs. 376).
October 3, 2009. Arkansas hosts Texas A&M. Arkansas is the SEC’s last ranked pass defense and last ranked total defense. The Aggies ended the season as the number one offense in the Big 12. The game got ugly early with the Razorbacks leader 30-10 at the half. Thus A&M spent the entire second half throwing on the last ranked SEC defense and still was held to just below their season average. This is the same A&M team that put up 39 points and 542 yards on the vaunted Longhorn’s defense.
For those that missed our Twitter feed this morning, SI’s Stewart Mandel called this morning’s Toby Gerhart teaser (“Gerhart – 31st in yards per carry. Lost 4 to teams that lost 17. Heisman…really?”) a “smear campaign”. I took it as a teasing nudge (and still do) from a writer that happens to be one of my favorites in the business. His college football articles are part of the few “must reads” every week for me. His writing is unbiased and almost always “dead on”. And I (as a tiny flea speck of an amateur) was thrilled to even be noticed.
This afternoon I noticed SI’s cover. Pro Gerhart lead with an anti-Tebow follow (Why Tebow Shouldn’t Get the 2009 Heisman). Then there’s the Dan Patrick Show (an SI property) this week. Segments include Gerhart and McCoy themselves – and Gary Danielson dismissing Tebow.
(Continued after the graphic)
First, I understand that Mandel couldn’t have known anything about this. I’m certain he has zero web placement or editorial control. However, it does make me wonder whether SI is not-so-subtly pushing a candidate.
I make no bones that I am pro-Tebow…I’m a personal blog that has Tebow in my logo. However, I have utilized stats that I believe to be contextual. I’m more interested in yards/carry and yards/pass attempt than total yards. I believe it tells me more about a player than looking at total anything – without knowing context. And if you check out the site from two years ago, you’ll see I emphasized many of the same numbers then…this isn’t me choosing some obscure stat because it currently favors Tebow.
SI seems to be actively dismissing the Tebow campaign. I understand Gerhart’s had a good year and I genuinely like everything I know of the kid, his game and his lifestyle. I also genuinely question whether you can call a running back in 31st place in the nation in yards per carry (not to mention tenth in the PAC10 behind even his own QB) the “best player in the country”.
I understand the questions about Tebow’s candidacy – he doesn’t have similar numbers to prior years and his total yardage is low (compared to a McCoy or Keenum). However, SI is the only major outlet I could find (in a quick search) that doesn’t even mention Tebow in their weekly Top five. Between that, their article stating explicitly that he shouldn’t get it and the DP Show segments, one has to wonder if there is something else at play here. Their rival, ESPN, has an exclusive television deal with the SEC. Tebow already gets the SEC a ton of exposure. Would it be a coup for their rival to have the face of the SEC get an award like the Heisman? Would SI forgo editorial objectivity to try to prevent that rival from such a win?
Texas fans – McCoy threw nine interceptions and Tebow threw four. Does that stat (by itself) mean anything to you? McCoy threw over twice the number of costly interceptions. That has to mean he sucks compared to Tebow, right? Without knowing context – how many pass attempts are involved – that stat means nothing.
Many of you claim I ignored the basic QB stat line. I say the basic stat line is all you see when you go to the typical Heisman site. Feel free to check SI or ESPN for those numbers. McCoy threw for more yards. Congratulations – when they give an award for that, I will wholeheartedly say he wins. My point with all my articles is context. Because he throws the ball 80% more than Tebow, McCoy SHOULD have more overall yards AND touchdowns AND interceptions. How many yards does he get every time he tries? What percentage of those throws are for touchdowns (the point of the game)? What percentage of attempts are interceptions? There’s a reason these stats are ALL kept on the passing efficiency page of the NCAA stats home. To be able to compare quarterbacks that run very different offenses. There’s a reason that QB rating is one of the major stats in the NFL.
My writing isn’t to say McCoy sucks and I’m disappointed that’s what many of you have come here to comment (about Tebow personally). McCoy (and Gerhart and Ingram and Spiller) is an honorable man playing a sport for our enjoyment for (basically) no pay. He is also a great quarterback. When fully informed of the efficiency numbers (which I also pushed on the site in 2007 when he had the yardage too) and the defensive rankings, I believe Tebow should be under more serious consideration for the Heisman. Please note – I have never once said any of the candidates suck. I welcome intelligent discourse.
Best of luck in your game this weekend – may you perform well with no injuries. I genuinely hope the Gators and the Horns are able to settle this debate on the field.
It appears from much of the discussion on the major sites and in Twitterland that (unless someone else does something amazing) the Heisman will come down to Gerhart, McCoy and Tebow. I think Gerhart has been fantastic this year, but he’s going to struggle when it’s all said and done. He’s on the west coast, so many of the voters haven’t seen him. Plus, Stanford is 8-4 with a loss to a very mediocre Wake Forest team. This doesn’t mean I’ll ignore his candidacy this week, but I think there’s a pretty good chance that it will come down to McCoy and Tebow for the trophy.
McCoy’s got great numbers and for those voters that will just pull their stats lines, he’ll be their guy. I think McCoy is a very good quarterback. But I think his level of competition merits scrutinizing those stats of his. I’ve written before that Tebow’s numbers come from this year’s coaching philosophy, not some failure on his part. The Gators have become a team focused on running the ball first and rarely throwing it down field. They also play in the very defensive minded SouthEastern Conference. Say what you want about a “down year,” but the SEC still plays the best defense in the nation.
Total passing yards McCoy beats Tebow hands down. But when you look at things like total interceptions, Tebow has fewer than half the interceptions of McCoy – again because of the offensive mindset. But what about efficiency and effectiveness at the position. When you do attempt a pass, how many yards do you average? How frequently do you throw a touchdown? How infrequently do you throw costly interceptions? And how do you perform when you play the best opposition?
Overall, both players have played effective, efficient football. Their best stat line is 12-0. However, how did they contribute to being there?
Tebow has the better passer rating, TD percentage, Interception percentage and more total touchdowns. He also has a significantly better passer rating and yards per attempt. Most importantly, he’s faced far better overall pass defenses.
But how have they both performed while under pressure? How much do those overall numbers change when you focus on just their best competition. I looked at the same stats for games against only the Top 40 pass defenses. (Note: when I first published this article, I was asked almost immediately “Why Top 40 pass defenses?”. The inference was that I am cherrypicking good numbers for Tebow. I chose 40 because that is the exact ranking of the second best pass defense Texas played. They didn’t play another pass defense in the Top 70. Once you get to the bottom 50 pass defenses, I can no longer justify it as checking stats against the “best competition”.)
The difference between the quarterbacks becomes far more pronounced when you look at these stats. Tebow’s numbers are virtually identical to his full season numbers. McCoy’s drop substantially. In fact, McCoy’s average stat line for these games plunges – 196 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
This seems to be the theme of the Tebow naysayers. Yeah, he’s good but he’s had such a disappointing year. Not sure how 11-0 in the SEC can be considered a disappointment, but I understand that his numbers haven’t been as “out of this world” as they have been in previous seasons. You know what? It was planned this way from the beginning of the season and the Gators may be a better TEAM than they were last year.
Florida lost their two leading receivers from last year and both are now playing on Sundays. I’m not sure you can overemphasize how big a loss Percy Harvin was. He was a once in a decade skill player, which is being demonstrated by the fact that he’s the current favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year award. Carl Moore and Andre Debose were lost before the season ever started. Deonte Thompson has a ton of raw skill, but has not developed into a “go to” guy yet. That basically left Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez and some very young and very raw receivers to try to fill out Florida’s four and five receivers sets. Step into Urban Meyer’s shoes…you have ridiculous skill and speed, but not much experience on the outside. What do you do? You focus on your option offense and lean on your senior quarterback. The result? Florida has the ninth ranked rushing offense in the country…ahead of Alabama.
What do you want from your quarterback in this different system?
You want him to be a team player and not be disappointed that his stats may not be comparable to previous years. Check.
You want him to efficiently distribute the ball. 13 players have run the ball for Florida this year. The team averages over 5.4 yards per carry. The three main ball carriers after Tebow all average over 6.0 YPC.
You want him to win. 11-0 so far says it all.
You want him to be efficient when you pass the ball. To determine that, let’s compare Tebow to the only other quarterback who is still considered a candidate for the trophy, Colt McCoy.
Tebow has a better passer rating, more yards per attempt and a virtually identical yards per play average. He has a significantly higher touchdown percentage, a lower interception percentage and more total touchdowns. He also did it against much better pass defenses.
Oh, and he’s also run for over 700 yards this season.
Gerhart had a nice day on the ground…136 yards rushing and four touchdowns. In reality, he had a 61 yard dash and averaged less than four yards per rush the rest of the game. He also had a nice 29 yard scamper on Stanford’s final drive. Unfortunately, he was outrushed (and beaten) in the game.
Ingram rushed for 102 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries against FCS Chattanooga.
Think Mack Brown and McCoy were dedicating this to the voters. He played the entire game in a 31 point blowout against the 69th ranked pass defense in FBS. He certainly had amazing stats. 396 yards passing and four touchdowns.
Spiller’s day was disappointing – 58 yards on the ground, 39 yards as a receiver. How is he a serious candidate?
Tebow played through two possessions in the third quarter. 218 yards through the air…102 yards on the ground…3 touchdowns.
The day appears to be a draw between Tebow and McCoy. 396 yards of offense from McCoy for the game…320 yards of offense from Tebow in 2 1/2 quarters.
